ADT Inc.
ADT Q3 2026 results; guidance withdrawn pending the Thrive transaction.
ModelProvisional taxonomy
Permanent holding company with vertical platforms
A holding company that states an indefinite ownership horizon and builds sector platforms (accounting, IT services, built environment) that each acquire firms.
Permanent capital is a stated strategy rather than a legal guarantee. The structure typically has a holding company raising capital, sector platforms with their own leadership, and operating firms under each platform. Counting rules matter: 'businesses owned' and 'firms in a platform' are different denominators.
Researched companies
| Company | What it does | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence Holdings | New York holding company that 'refounds' scaled services businesses with its Atlas platform and embedded engineers; agreed a $7.7bn enterprise-value deal for The Baldwin Group and reports early results at BankSouth. | Full dossier |
| Thrive Holdings | Permanent holding company launched by Thrive Capital in April 2025 that builds sector platforms (Current in accounting, Shield in IT services) and counts OpenAI as an equity partner. | Full dossier |
| Enduring Ventures | Permanent holding company candidate from the imported directory. | Limited coverage |
Key operating and capital evidence
Reviewed claims with a quantity, across the companies above. Definitions and periods differ by company; read the caveats.
| Metric | Reported result | Period / as of | Population | Evidence | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| capital duration | permanent_self_described · Permanent ownership is stated strategy, not an unconditional legal guarantee. | Not stated | Company reported | 12 | |
| atlas scope | horizontal_services_platform · Sequence describes Atlas as a horizontal platform for refounding services businesses. | Not stated | Company reported | 12 | |
| capital duration | permanent_self_described · Describes itself as a permanent holding company.CaveatNot a guarantee against future asset sales or an IPO. | Not stated | Company reported | 12 | |
| team headcount | 19 people · Nonales reports growth from five people to nineteen.CaveatEmployee self-report; perimeter and employment basis undefined. | Not stated | Company reported | 1 | |
| new backers | Affinity Partners,Dell Family Office · Founders welcome Affinity Partners and Dell Family Office as new partners.CaveatNo new round amount disclosed in these posts. | Not stated | Company reported | 12 | |
| other existing backer | Factory · September founder posts also name Factory.CaveatExact legal fund identity not resolved. | Not stated | Company reported | 12 | |
| baldwin parent | Square Acquisition Parent, Inc. · Square Acquisition Parent was wholly owned by Sequence at signing. | Not stated | Filing | 1 | |
| valuation | $12bn · Thrive announced a $12 billion valuation. | Not stated | Company reported | 1 | |
| reported valuation | $12bn · Fundraise announcement states $12B valuation; pre/post-money not specified. | Not stated | Company reported | 1 | |
| cumulative capital | $3bn (_lower_bound) · Cumulative capital raised exceeds $3B. | Not stated | Company reported | 1 | |
| funding participants | D1 Capital Partners,Altimeter Capital,SoftBank Group · Announcement names D1, Altimeter and SoftBank Group among investors. | Not stated | Company reported | 1 | |
| business count | 70 businesses_lower_bound · Company reports owning/operating more than 70 businesses.CaveatCounting perimeter not disclosed; not a count of direct platforms. | Not stated | Company reported | 1 |
Company reports, forecasts, testimonials and independent reporting are labelled separately. A result without a stated baseline or population is not comparable across companies.
Latest articles
ADT Inc.
Target company press release announcing the definitive agreement.
Thrive Holdings
Acquirer statement on the ADT agreement; source of the ">75 businesses" figure.
Insurance Business
Trade-press report on Baldwin's preliminary Q3 figures.
The Baldwin Group · The Baldwin Group investor relations
Definitive agreement at approximately $7.7 billion enterprise value: about $4.6 billion equity purchase price and $3.1 billion net debt. Expected close Q1 2027.
Michael J. Lee; Alexander C. Rubin · Sequence Holdings
Explains refounding scaled service businesses with engineers, operators, patient ownership, and Atlas. Reports BankSouth loan-stage and turnaround improvements.
Alexander Rubin · LinkedIn
Announces the Baldwin agreement and welcomes DFO and Affinity Partners as Sequence partners. An author comment points to engineering and deployment hiring.
Dan Primack · Axios
Reports the Sequence–DFO agreement.
Chronology
- ADT withdraws guidance in Q3 results, pending Thrive dealoperating evidence
ADT reported Q3 2026 revenue of $1,349M (up 4%) and withdrew its guidance because of the pending Thrive Holdings acquisition. The release also lists AI programs ADT began before the deal, including AI-driven sales and service pilots and Origin AI presence sensing planned for 2027. The Thrive deal remains announced, not closed.
Thrive Holdings signed a definitive agreement to buy ADT for $10.00 a share in cash, about $7.6B in equity value and $15.3B in enterprise value, with financing committed solely by Apollo-managed funds. Announced, not closed: closing is expected in Q1 2027, subject to ADT shareholder and antitrust approval, and ADT may solicit other bids until Nov 28.
- Baldwin reports $21M in go-private costs as Sequence/DFO deal stays pendingoperating evidenceAnnounced
Baldwin's preliminary Q3 figures, as reported by Insurance Business, include $21M of go-private costs so far; the acquisition by Sequence Holdings and DFO Management is announced and still pending, with closing expected in Q1 2027.
- Thrive’s new capitalunspecified
Open questions
- Separate holdco funding, acquisition equity, rollover and debt; obtain September round size, valuation, dilution and investor legal identities.Sequence Holdings
- Establish the final Sequence/DFO/colleague cap table, voting rights, platform IP ownership and related-party fee arrangements.Sequence Holdings
- Obtain dated cohorts, absolute cycle times, count versus dollar volume, staff perimeter, incremental engineering cost and quality outcomes.Sequence Holdings
- Establish pre-Sequence AI adoption, costs, organic growth, margins and staffing; isolate subsequent incremental contribution.Sequence Holdings
- Track proxy, Schedule 13E-3, financing disclosures, approvals, vote, amendments and actual closing.Sequence Holdings
- Document Atlas architecture, external models, permissioning, audit logs, evaluations, security and reusable versus custom components.Sequence Holdings
- Resolve full dated roster, exact functions, start/end dates and professional channels; avoid equating historical names with current headcount.Sequence Holdings
- Reconcile pre-2025 recollections, indexed founder role dates and Neal Wu’s precise historical status.Sequence Holdings